TL;DR
Finder's 2026 Home Loan Report found that 44% of Australian mortgage holders either expect to still be repaying their loan in retirement or already are. The figure comes from Finder's July 2026 survey of 1,010 Australian adults, including 291 mortgage holders. It measures what borrowers expect, not what their loans will actually do.
Three numbers from the same report sit together: 44% expect to carry, or already carry, mortgage debt into retirement; just over one in five (22%) expect to be mortgage-free within five years; and 55% expect to clear the loan before they retire. What separates those outcomes is less the headline than the mechanics underneath it: the outstanding balance, the remaining loan term, and whether extra repayments are made while income is still being earned. Finder's own illustration puts a 0.5 percentage point rate difference on a $500,000 loan over 30 years at more than $58,000.
This article explains reported figures and the mechanics behind them. It is general information only, is not personal financial advice, and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs.
What the 44% figure actually measures
The headline comes from Finder's 2026 Home Loan Report, which found that 44% of Australian mortgage holders either expect to still be repaying their loan in retirement or already are. The report is based on Finder's July 2026 survey of 1,010 Australian adults, including 291 mortgage holders. The same tracker is described elsewhere as a nationally representative survey that also covered 619 homeowners in some form.
Because it is a survey of expectations, the 44% is not a forecast of arrears, default or forced sales. It is a statement about what borrowers believe will happen to them, and beliefs can change as rates, incomes and balances change.
Finder's breakdown of the group is worth reading closely. It attributes the 44% to 24% who expect to still have a mortgage when they reach retirement, 14% who are already retired and continuing to make repayments, and a further 6% who said their mortgage would cause them to delay retirement.
Income separates the picture sharply. Some 76% of mortgage holders earning more than $200,000 expect to clear their loan before retirement, against 25% of those earning less than $50,000. Intentions differ too: about a third (34%) want to be mortgage-free as soon as possible, while 41% aim to repay early without being aggressive about it.
Why term, balance and extra repayments matter more than the headline
The same national statistic can describe two borrowers in completely different positions. One may be ten years from retirement with a modest balance; another may be five years out with a balance that has barely moved because repayments have been covering interest rather than principal. The headline does not distinguish them, so the useful question is which variables actually move an individual outcome.
Three do most of the work:
- Outstanding balance, because it sets the base that interest is charged on.
- Remaining term, because it sets how many repayment cycles are left before income stops.
- Extra repayments made while employed, because they reduce the balance during the years when income is highest.
Finder's illustration gives a sense of scale: a 0.5 percentage point rate difference on a $500,000 loan over 30 years adds up to more than $58,000. That is a rate illustration, not a promise about any particular loan.
One mechanic is easy to overlook when refinancing. Moneysmart advises borrowers to be firm on the length of the home loan they want, because otherwise they could end up with a longer loan term than the years left to pay off the current mortgage.
Moneysmart also notes that the RBA cash rate is not the only thing affecting home loan rates: lender pricing can also reflect personal creditworthiness, a borrower's value as a customer, and what competitors are offering, with variable rates on the market differing by more than 2 percentage points.
Mortgage stress and the switching problem
The report found that 55% of mortgage holders spend more than 30% of their take-home pay on repayments, the traditional mortgage-stress threshold, and the average share is 38%. Figures reported alongside it describe 43% of mortgage holders, equivalent to approximately 1.4 million people, spending at least 40% of take-home pay on monthly repayments, and 29% directing more than half of post-tax income to the loan.
High repayments are only half the problem; the other half is the belief that nothing can be done. Just 45% say they could switch to a better loan today, while 54% say they cannot, citing reasons that include income or expenses, being on a fixed rate, or having too little equity. Separately, 35% believe they could not save anything by refinancing.
Finder home loans expert Richard Whitten argued against assuming refinancing is out of reach, writing in the report that "a mortgage broker will run your profile through 20+ lenders". He added that brokers can also show borrowers who are not yet eligible where they are falling short.
The rate backdrop: the RBA's September 2026 decision
At its meeting on 29 September 2026, the RBA's Monetary Policy Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent. The RBA issues a media release at 2:30 pm after each Monetary Policy Board meeting, with any change in the cash rate target taking effect the following day. Moneysmart notes the Board meets eight times a year to decide whether to increase, decrease or maintain the cash rate.
Canstar research cited in the report estimates that an owner-occupier who has not renegotiated in five years would be paying about 7.18% after the RBA rate rise widely expected on 29 September. That borrower could save more than $10,000 over two years on a $600,000 loan by switching to a competitive 6.24% rate, even after $1,150 in switch costs.
Borrowing capacity is also under pressure. Other Canstar research found that a borrower on the average full-time wage of $108,650 could borrow about $11,200 less if the RBA lifts the cash rate again, taking the total reduction in a typical borrower's capacity for the year to $47,400, or about 9%. That estimate is based on an owner-occupier with no other debts, no dependants and minimal expenses.
Retirement rules that interact with a mortgage
Readers approaching retirement with a balance still owing usually want to know how superannuation and the Age Pension treat that debt. The sources behind this article do not set out superannuation access rules, so none are stated here. What they do cover is how retirement income is assessed.
Services Australia assesses both a person's and their partner's income from all sources for the Age Pension income test, including financial assets such as savings, shares and superannuation, using deeming to work out how much income financial assets produce. Employment income must be reported. The same guidance states that a person can earn up to an extra $24.60 per fortnight for each dependent child without reducing their pension, and that couples living together who are both getting a pension can each earn an extra $12.30 per fortnight for each dependent child.
On the assets test, Services Australia assesses all assets as part of Age Pension assessment, and how much is paid depends on the value of assets, homeownership status and whether the person is in a relationship. The limits and cut off points are reviewed in March, July and September each year. From 20 September 2026, part pensions cancel when assets are over the cut off point for a person's situation, and transitional rate pensions cancel on the same basis. Where assets cause severe hardship, Asset Hardship provisions and the Home Equity Access Scheme are referenced by Services Australia as avenues to look at.
On the family home specifically, guidance published by the Department of Veterans' Affairs on the pensions it administers states that a home is not counted as an asset when calculating a pension or payment, but that it does affect assessment under the assets test, and that a homeowner's asset value limit is lower than that of someone who does not own their residence. That guidance gives the example of a single homeowner with $614,250 in assets whose rate under the assets test would equal $393.95 a fortnight. It also notes that retirement villages and granny flats are special cases treated differently, and that sale proceeds intended for a new home within 24 months can be exempted under the assets test for up to 24 months. Because Age Pension is administered by Services Australia rather than DVA, anyone applying these rules to their own situation should confirm the current treatment with Services Australia.
What refinancing involves, and what it costs
Moneysmart's guidance is blunt about the trade-off: refinancing to a lower rate might save money, but before switching you should make sure the benefits outweigh the costs. Costs can include a fee for refinancing internally, meaning staying with the current lender but switching to a different loan. Once a shortlist and its fees are clear, Moneysmart points to a mortgage switching calculator to work out whether switching saves money and how long it takes to recover the cost of switching. Its worked example has Simon and Tiana, whose fixed rate period is ending, saving $84,040, or $280 a month, over the life of their 25-year loan by switching.
Documentation requirements are set by each lender and are not specified in the sources behind this article, so no checklist is offered here. The practical sequence, based on those sources, is: compare rates against your current rate, price the fees on both sides, keep the remaining term you want rather than accepting a default, and only then decide.
Arrivau operates as an Australian loan broker information and service entry point for Australian borrowers, covering home loan and refinancing information. Beyond that description, no fee, approval or outcome claim is made in this article.
Questions borrowers ask
Is 44% the same as saying 44% of borrowers will default?
No. It is a survey measure of expectations. Finder asked mortgage holders what they expect, and 44% either expect to still be repaying in retirement or already are.
How big was the survey behind the report?
It was Finder's July 2026 survey of 1,010 Australian adults, including 291 mortgage holders.
Why do higher-income borrowers look so different?
Because capacity to clear a balance before income stops is unevenly distributed. 76% of mortgage holders earning more than $200,000 expect to clear their loan before retirement, against 25% of those earning less than $50,000.
Does a lower rate always help a retirement plan?
Not automatically. If switching resets the loan to a longer term than the years left on the current mortgage, total cost can rise even as monthly repayments fall, which is why Moneysmart advises being firm on loan length.
What should I do if I am close to retirement with a large balance?
The sources here do not support individual recommendations. They point to checking whether a switch pays off after costs, understanding how the Age Pension income and assets tests treat income, assets and homeownership, and getting advice from a licensed professional before acting.
How these figures were compiled
The core finding comes from Finder's 2026 Home Loan Report as reported by Australian Broker on 28 September 2026, based on Finder's July 2026 survey of 1,010 Australian adults including 291 mortgage holders. Composition of the 44% group is drawn from Starts at 60's 24 August 2026 report on the same Finder data, and the income-share figures from Mortgage Professional Australia's report on 24 August 2026. Both are more than 30 days old relative to the core story and are used as background only.
Rate facts come from the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target material and its monetary policy decision media release of 29 September 2026. Brand description comes from approved Arrivau business facts.
Editorial note
This article reports figures published by Finder, Canstar, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Services Australia, the Department of Veterans' Affairs and Moneysmart, and explains the mechanics those sources describe. It is general information about Australian home loans and retirement, not personal, financial, tax or legal advice, and it does not consider your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Rates, limits and cut off points change, including on the review cycle Services Australia describes. Before making decisions about refinancing, superannuation or retirement income, speak to a licensed mortgage broker, financial adviser or other qualified professional and check the current figures directly with the RBA, Services Australia and your lender.